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Dudley's (New, Improved) Dungeon

< Nov 30th, 2009 >Quint
  ------|-----+-----
  |................|
  |................|
  |................|
  +................-
  |..........x@....|
  ------------------
                    
                    
You miss the grid bug. The grid bug bites! You get zapped!
  ------|-----+-----
  |................|
  |................|
  |................|
  +................-
  |..........x@....|
  ------------------
                    
                    
You miss the grid bug. The grid bug bites! You get zapped!
  ------|-----+-----
  |................|
  |................|
  |................|
  +................-
  |..........x@....|
  ------------------
                    
                    
You miss the grid bug. The grid bug bites! You get zapped!
  ------|-----+-----
  |................|
  |................|
  |................|
  +................-
  |..........x@....|
  ------------------
                    
                    
You miss the grid bug. The grid bug bites! You get zapped!

@ "Sigh, I've gotten hit four times in a row and missed four times in a row...but that must mean I've got better luck this time!"

    ------------    
   /  REST IN   \   
  /    PEACE     \  
 /                \ 
 |     Dudley     | 
 |   killed  by   | 
 |   elementary   | 
 |   probability  | 
)(/|\||\)/)|/)|/\|||
Past run-ins with the RNG do not determine future run-ins with the RNG.
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13 Comments

#1 TobyBartels Mon, 30 Nov 2009 00:18:07
Watch those hit points!

#2 NobodySpecial Mon, 30 Nov 2009 01:08:38
    ------------    
   /  REST IN   \\   
  /    PEACE     \\  
 /                \\ 
 |     Dudley     | 
 |   killed  by   | 
 | the  gambler's | 
 |     fallacy    | 
)(/|\\||\\)/)|/)|/\\|||

—NobodySpecial, killed by hypermagical backslashes.

Last edited: Mon, 30 Nov 2009 01:12:22

#3 TJR Mon, 30 Nov 2009 01:45:12
Unfortunately, the default RNG ist pretty bad and therefore offers a rich field for this kind of reasoning. Regardless of what the spell casting menu says, after failing once, I succeed "next to never" if I retry immediately.

Hard evidence the RNG is far from perfect can be found in U_init.c#line602.

#4 Quint Mon, 30 Nov 2009 03:28:06
I admit, it was an excuse to use "killed by elementary probability".

#5 acheron Mon, 30 Nov 2009 04:58:03
I'm with Dudley: The RNG follows its own laws. Unfortunately I think it only works one way.

#6 eskimo68 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 06:57:07
Chances of Dudley ascending:
0.99 * 0.99 * 0.99...
Hups :)
Last edited: Mon, 30 Nov 2009 06:57:24

#7 eskimo68 Mon, 30 Nov 2009 06:59:04
An along those lines, if the RNG would generate a monster that is not edible and does not carry anything often enough (every turn?) Dudley would have to wade through enough monsters to die of starvation.
A odds-fixing RNG anyone? Just like the best slot machines that change the odds on the fly.

#8 Factorial Mon, 30 Nov 2009 07:03:46
It's kind of ironic that I was just reading an article on cheating NetHack's RNG by figuring out the seed. Shouldn't the amount of random numbers used on turn one be unknowable, though? How many monster actions use the RNG?

E, by the way.

and on a completely unrelated note WOOHOOOO I JUST GOT A SPELLBOOK OF IDENTIFY

#9 Quint Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:18:43
The sucky thing is that the Identify spell is actually rather high-level and not easily cast by a non-mage.

#10 Sorceror Fri, 19 Feb 2010 14:35:38
Probability of the elements?

#11 todaal Wed, 24 Feb 2010 11:38:31
I think NobodySpecial has the superior punch line. I've often wondered about these grid bugs. Do you suppose they represent some particular inside joke to the dev team beyond the general joke? Is their bugness not enough to be represented as "a"?

#12 DarthCliche Mon, 17 May 2010 01:07:40
todaal, "x" represents a mythical insect. Grid bugs are not real so they are assigned to x instead of a.

#13 DarthCliche Sun, 11 Jul 2010 20:00:52
Also, the one in the comic is funnier because in the actual game you can be "killed by elementary chemistry" (when you die from dipping a potion of acid).

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